Industry Facts

Compared to other sources of renewable energy, solar energy has the greatest potential for long-term growth. It is estimated that enough sunlight falls on the earth every minute to meet the world’s energy demands for an entire year.

Renewable sources of energy are important not just because they diversify from the technological base of the electrical generation but also because the global community is seriously concerned about the global change of climate.

According to the study by Exxon Mobile [1], global energy demand is expected to grow at 1.3% per year on average to 2030, i.e. by cumulative 40% compared to 2005. Of this increase, over 40% will be consumed in power generation process. Consequently, energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to rise.

One of the key factors of reduction of greenhouse gases emission is the use of renewable sources of energy: solar energy, energy of the wind, biomass, hydro-, tidal and geothermal energy. The development of these technologies is supported by most well-developed countries. In particular, in March 2007 the Council of Europe set a goal to bring the use of renewable energy resources to 20% of all energy consumption in the EC.

An important advantage of solar PV systems is that there is no carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during their operation. Although there are indirect emissions during the other stages of the solar lifecycle, PV technologies generate far less life-cycle air emissions per GWh than conventional fossil-fuel-based electricity generation technologies. At least 89% of air emissions associated with electricity generation could be prevented if electricity from photovoltaics displaces electricity from the grid. [2] PV also does not involve any other polluting emissions in the form of exhaust fumes or noise. By 2030, reduction in annual global carbon emissions due to solar PV technologies are expected to reach 1 billion tons, and cumulative reduction in carbon emissions ─ nearly 6.7 billion tons. [3]

Compared to other sources of renewable energy, solar energy has the greatest potential for long-term growth: it is estimated that enough sunlight falls on the earth every minute to meet the world’s energy demands for an entire year[4]. According to the European Photovoltaic Association (EPIA), by 2030, global solar electric output will reach 2,646 TWh, covering from 8.9 to 13.8% of global electricity demand. Solar market will amount to €454 bn per year. [5]

Current state of the market

2008 was the year of outstanding market expansion, largely due to the development of PV in established markets (Germany, USA and Japan), an impressive growth in Spain and the emergence of new markets — mainly in the rest of Europe and in South Korea.

In 2008, the global PV market reached 5.5GW in annual installations, up from 2.4GW in 2007 - a 129% increase. Spain accounted for almost half of new installations (2.5GW). The second largest market was Germany (1.5GW) followed by the US and South Korea:

Source: EPIA

The global cumulative capacity approached 15 GW, with Europe leading the way (over 9 GW — over 65% of the global cumulative PV installed capacity), and Japan (2.1 GW) and the US (1.2 GW) are following behind (15% and 8%, respectively). ^{^[7]}

According to Solarbuzz, the global solar cell production reached 6.85 GW in 2008, up from 3.44 GW a year earlier. China and Taiwan increased their share of global solar cell production from 35% to 44%, remaining the largest cell production base, far ahead of Germany and Japan. [8]

In terms of individual companies, Q-Cells (Germany) retained its leadership, while First Solar (USA) surged to second, leaving Suntech (China) once again in the third place. [9]

Thin film production grew 123% to 0.89 GW. [10]

Polysilicon supply to the solar industry in 2008 grew by 127% in megawatt terms, easing substantially the long-lasting shortage.

In monetary terms, in 2008, the PV industry generated $37.1 billion in global revenues and raised over $12.5 billion in equity and debt (up 11% on the prior year). [12]

Market outlook

While 2009 is said to be the year of moderate development or stagnation, the PV Market is expected to continue its growth in the future, even according to the so called Moderate scenario, which is based on the premise that the market does not receive any major enforcement of support mechanisms (the Policy-Driven scenario shown expects the introduction of support mechanisms such as feed-in tariffs and others in many countries ).

EPIA foresees the market to reach 22 GW by 2013 under the Policy-Driven scenario which would mean a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32% over the period 2008-2013. For the Moderate scenario, the annual market is expected to range above 12 GW in 2013 with a CAGR of 17%: ^{^[13]}

Global Annual PV Market Outlook till 2013. Source: EPIA

Through 2013, production capacities along the PV value chain are expected to grow with a CAGR of 20 to 30%:

Source: EPIA^{^[15]}

Europe is expected to remain the largest PV regional market through 2020 both in terms of both, annual and cumulative installations. North America and, particularly, US is expected to develop as a large market with consistent growth in the next few years. China and South Asia are also forecast to emerge as a large market by 2020.

In particular, under the Policy-Driven scenario, the European PV market is forecast to grow from 4.5 GW in 2008 to 11 GW by 2013, US — from 0.3 GW to 4.5 GW, Japan — from 0.23 GW to 1.7 GW and the rest of the world — from 0.5 GW to more than 5 GW:^{^[16]}